Carbon Pricing Sensitivity

Your carbon exposure is calculable. Calculate it.

Four NGFS scenarios. EBITDA-level stress-test. Carbon Resilience Rating from AAA to CCC.

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Carbon Sensitivity Analysis · FY2025 · Manufacturing Sector

B+

Carbon Resilience Rating

Moderate exposure

EBITDA Impact by Scenario

Net Zero 2050−8.4% by 2030

Delayed Transition−4.2%

Current Policies−1.1%

Carbon Price Range

Current 2030 central$48 / tCO₂e $147 / tCO₂e

Carbon Exposure Mapping

Know every line of your carbon liability.

Before you can stress-test, you need to know what you own. Aretia maps your direct carbon exposure (Scope 1 — ETS-regulated emissions), indirect exposure (Scope 2 — electricity cost pass-through), and value chain exposure (Scope 3 — supplier and customer-side carbon costs) to specific revenue lines, cost centres and asset categories. The exposure map tells you exactly which parts of your business face the greatest sensitivity to carbon price increases.

Scope 1 direct ETS exposure by facility and product

Scope 2 electricity cost carbon pass-through

Scope 3 upstream supplier carbon cost exposure

Revenue line and cost centre mapping per exposure

Carbon Exposure Map

Exposure Type | tCO₂e | Carbon Cost @$80 | % of EBITDA

Scope 1 ETS direct3,210 t$256,8002.1%

Scope 2 electricity1,890 t$151,2001.2%

Scope 3 upstream4,200 t$336,0002.7%

Scope 3 customer pass-through2,400 t$192,0001.6%

Total exposure11,700 tCO₂e · $936,000 · 7.6% EBITDA

EBITDA Stress-Test

Four scenarios. Ten years. Full P&L impact.

Aretia runs your carbon exposure through four NGFS scenarios — Net Zero 2050, Below 2°C, Delayed Transition, and Current Policies — projecting carbon price trajectories from current levels to 2050. For each scenario and year, the EBITDA impact is calculated from your exposure map: carbon cost increase as a percentage of current EBITDA, net of any revenue upside from carbon-efficient competitive positioning. The output is a scenario fan chart and data table ready for board presentation.

Four NGFS scenarios: NZ2050, B2°C, Delayed, Current Policies

Annual EBITDA impact from current year to 2050

Revenue upside from carbon efficiency modelled

Board-ready scenario fan chart and sensitivity table

EBITDA Sensitivity — 4 Scenarios

Scenario | 2027 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040

Net Zero 2050−2.1%−8.4%−14.2%−18.8%

Below 2°C−1.4%−5.1%−9.6%−13.2%

Delayed Transition−0.8%−4.2%−8.8%−12.4%

Current Policies−0.3%−1.1%−2.4%−3.8%

Carbon Resilience Rating

AAA to CCC. Know where you stand.

The Aretia Carbon Resilience Rating (CRR) is a six-tier rating (AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B, CCC) that summarises an organisation's overall exposure to carbon pricing risk relative to peers in the same sector. The rating factors in: total carbon exposure relative to EBITDA, trajectory of reduction relative to SBTi pathway, regulatory jurisdiction exposure, and hedging actions in place. It is updated with each new inventory cycle and scenario refresh.

Six-tier rating: AAA (resilient) to CCC (high risk)

Sector-relative benchmarking — not absolute thresholds

SBTi trajectory factored into forward-looking rating

Regulatory jurisdiction exposure weighted by revenue

Carbon Resilience Rating — FY2025

B+

Carbon Resilience Rating · FY2025

AAAAAABBBBBB+CCC

EBITDA exposure ratio7.6% — Moderate

Reduction vs SBTi trajectory−22% (on track)

Regulatory jurisdiction riskMedium (EU ETS + CBAM)

Hedging actionsNone — opportunity flagged

Sector percentile58th (above median)

Rating outlookStable improving if SBTi met