Climate Scenario Analysis

Three warming pathways. Translated into your numbers.

NGFS scenarios modelled as quantified business impact — carbon price trajectories, EBITDA sensitivity, and asset-level physical risk scores. Formatted for IFRS S2 Section 10 disclosure.

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Climate Scenario Analysis · FY2025

1.5°C Net Zero

High transition, low physical

2°C Delayed

Moderate both

3°C+ Current Policies

Low transition, high physical

Physical risk: 3 assets flagged · Transition risk: $2.4M EBITDA impact by 2030

Scenario Selection

NGFS pathways. Translated into your numbers.

Aretia implements the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) climate scenarios — Net Zero 2050, Delayed Transition, and Current Policies — as quantified business impact models. Rather than abstract temperature trajectories, the platform translates each scenario into carbon price projections, technology cost curves, policy timeline assumptions, and physical hazard probability distributions relevant to your sector and geography.

NGFS Net Zero 2050, Delayed Transition, Current Policies

Carbon price projections to 2050 per scenario

Technology transition cost curves by sector

Policy timeline assumptions built into each pathway

Scenario Configuration — Transition Assumptions

1.5°C NZ

2°C DT

3°C+ CP

1.5°C Net Zero — Transition Assumptions

Carbon Price 2030$147/tCO₂e

Carbon Price 2040$218/tCO₂e

Carbon Price 2050$290/tCO₂e

RE Cost Reduction by 2030−45%

ICE Vehicle Phase-out2035

Policy RiskHigh

Physical Risk

Asset-level hazard scores. Not sector averages.

Physical climate risk is assessed at the coordinate level — not by country or sector proxy. For each asset location, Aretia scores acute hazards (floods, cyclones, extreme heat events) and chronic hazards (sea-level rise, increasing average temperatures, water stress) across four warming levels: current, 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C. The output is a per-asset risk matrix covering all six hazard categories.

Coordinate-level scoring — not sector or country averages

Acute: flood, cyclone, wildfire, extreme heat events

Chronic: sea-level rise, temperature increase, water stress

Risk scored at 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C warming levels

Physical Risk — Asset Scorecard

Lagos Distribution Hub · 6.5234°N, 3.3792°E

Hazard

Current

2°C

4°C

Riverine Flood

Low

Medium

High

Coastal Flood

Low

Medium

High

Extreme Heat

Medium

High

Very High

Water Stress

Low

Medium

High

Cyclone

Low

Medium

Wildfire

Negligible

Low

IFRS S2 Narrative

Scenario outputs formatted for disclosure.

IFRS S2 paragraph 10 requires scenario analysis to describe the organisation's assessment of its resilience using climate scenarios including a 1.5°C scenario. Aretia generates the full strategy section narrative — physical risk findings, transition risk EBITDA sensitivity, and business resilience assessment — formatted to the IFRS S2 disclosure structure, ready for review and sign-off.

IFRS S2 Section 10a physical risk scenario narrative

IFRS S2 Section 10b transition risk EBITDA sensitivity

Business resilience statement per scenario

Output reviewed and edited before publishing to disclosure

IFRS S2 Strategy — Scenario Narrative (Draft)

Strategy Pillar · Section 10 Scenario Analysis

“Under a 1.5°C Net Zero scenario, the organisation faces significant transition risks from accelerating carbon pricing, with modelled EBITDA sensitivity of −8.4% by 2035. Physical risk exposure is moderate at current assets, with riverine flood risk at Lagos Distribution Hub assessed as Medium under 2°C warming...”

AI-drafted · Under review

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Climate scenario analysis built for IFRS S2 Section 10.

NGFS scenarios. Asset-level physical risk. Transition risk EBITDA sensitivity. Formatted for disclosure.

Run Your First Scenario Talk to an Expert

Three warming pathways. Translated into your numbers.

NGFS pathways. Translated into your numbers.

Asset-level hazard scores. Not sector averages.

Scenario outputs formatted for disclosure.

Every action in Climate Scenarios is permanently logged.

Climate scenario analysis built for IFRS S2 Section 10.