Carbon Sensitivity
EBITDA stress-tests under 4 NGFS scenarios · Carbon Resilience Rating (AAA–CCC)
Current EBITDA
$68.0M
FY2024 baseline
Carbon Resilience
B+
Aretia Rating
Worst-Case Impact
-22%
Hot House World 2035
$-15.0M EBITDA
Carbon Cost 2030
$2.4M
Orderly transition, Scope 1+2
EBITDA Impact by NGFS Scenario (2030 horizon)
Orderly — Below 2°C
A
$63.9M EBITDA
Below 2°C
A+
$62.6M EBITDA
Disorderly — Fragmented
B
$58.5M EBITDA
Hot House World (3°C+)
C+
$53.0M EBITDA
Carbon Cost Drivers — 2030 Orderly Scenario
| Driver | Mechanism | 2030 Cost Impact |
|---|---|---|
| EU ETS (indirect — CBAM) | Steel & aluminium imports | $-0 / yr |
| Local carbon markets | Nigeria voluntary pricing | $-0 / yr |
| Energy cost pass-through | Grid electricity carbon premium | $-0 / yr |
| Fuel switching capex | Gas→electric transition cost | $-0 / yr |
Carbon Resilience Rating explained
Aretia's Carbon Resilience Rating (AAA to CCC) benchmarks your EBITDA sensitivity against sector peers under each NGFS pathway. B+ means outperforming 62% of industrial peers under the Orderly scenario.
Download your Carbon Sensitivity report.
Create a free account to generate and export audit-ready reports for Meridian Manufacturing Ltd..