Climate Scenarios
NGFS and IPCC pathways · 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C+ · Asset-level risk narratives
Pathways Modelled
4
NGFS · IPCC AR6
Time Horizons
3
2025 · 2035 · 2050
Worst Case
+3.8°C
Hot House World by 2100
Assets Assessed
3
Meridian Manufacturing Ltd. portfolio
NGFS Scenario Comparison — Impact
| Scenario | Warming (2100) | Transition Risk | Physical Risk | Overall Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Zero 2050 (Below 2°C) | +1.4°C | High | Low | A+ |
| Delayed Transition | +1.8°C | V.High | Medium | B |
| Divergent Net Zero | +1.6°C | High | Low | A |
| Hot House World | +3.8°C | Low | V.High | C |
Transition Risk Narrative — Net Zero 2050 · Nigeria operations
Under the Net Zero 2050 pathway, Nigeria is projected to introduce a carbon pricing mechanism by 2030 at ~$18/tCO₂e, rising to $65/tCO₂e by 2040 under NGFS assumptions. Meridian Manufacturing Ltd.'s primary plant faces direct cost exposure of approximately $0.6M annually by 2030 on Scope 1 emissions. The Manufacturing sector transition to low-carbon production may create a market risk of $4.2M in potential revenue displacement by 2035.
Physical Risk Narrative — Hot House World · 2050
At +3.8°C global warming, coastal flood probability at the primary plant increases from a 1-in-100-year to a 1-in-8-year event by 2050. Chronic heat stress is projected to reduce outdoor worker productivity by 18%, adding ~$1.4M in labour cost annually. Water scarcity may curtail operations by up to 60 days per year by 2045.
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